The debt crisis spills Germany: is it a warning for Angela Merkel's government?
- What does it mean that the EU reference bonus passes through difficulties?
- "External investors feel uncomfortable with the assets in euros."
- "Merkel does not accept that there is contagion in this crisis, but the contagion is there."
- "Germany should rethink its suicide strategy."
Even Germany has its problems. This week, Germany's debt – the reference bond, it should not be forgotten, which serves to calculate risk premiums – took a good blow: it tried to make an ambitious 10-year debt bond worth 6,245 million euros. euros, but, against all odds, only managed to place 62% of that amount.
The contagion of the debt crisis in the peripheral states is spreading to the heart of the EU The surprise was capital: the profitability of German debt soared in the secondary market to 2.06% – above the British bond- , which made that, by comparison, risk premiums go down. Likewise, it brought down the vast majority of European parks, which do not win for trouble.
"Germany has managed to make external investors feel uncomfortable with the assets in euros," explains Francisco Vidal, an Intermoney analyst.
Although the German authorities quickly went out and claimed that their country " has no problem whatsoever to refinance ", in the words of the finance spokesman, Martin Kotthaus, the entire eurozone had seen how Germany received its ration of debt crisis. And that when it comes to the reference bonus for everyone else, it has its meaning.
The reasons for investors to distrust the German bond are several. On the one hand, the process that has been following this crisis, step by step, from the periphery to the center of the EU, foretell problems for Germany, which also has a big problem with its debt -superior to the Spanish one, as it assured the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker-, according to Francisco Vidal who assures that " there is concern about the euro ".
" For Spain this situation is positive ", agree other analysts consulted by 20minutos.es , both for the immediate result – that the risk premium is relaxed – and for the political message that commands. Vidal, however, considers that there is little positive in this aspect, since this differential has dropped very little, because in reality, investors are also abandoning other values of the euro and not only the German.
"Germany does not accept that this debt crisis is a problem of contagion," says the researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and professor of economics at the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM), Federico Steinberg, "and that's why he had a strategy: tighten the countries of the South to face their reforms without help and then make changes in the governance of the EU. "
Germany should rethink its suicidal strategy This attitude is answered by the castling of Angela Merkel before her community partners to prevent the European Central Bank (ECB) from taking action on the matter, either with the aforementioned Eurobonds or buying debt from countries in a massive way. A position that could, according to the Intermoney analyst, have its origin in that Germany is not as strong as his chancellor assures and an over-exertion for an aid package could aggravate his situation.
"The fact that the German debt is worse than the British debt, when its economic outlook is better, means that the contagion is there and should rethink its suicidal strategy," concludes Steinberg.
"The contagion of the sovereign debt crisis in the peripheral states of the EU is spreading in the central, 'heart' of the European Union," said this Friday in Rome the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Olli Rehn.
This is a touch for Germany: it tells him he can not pull so much on the rope "This is a touch for Germany: it tells him he can not pull so much rope and that he must take action ", says Andrés Dancausa, Business Director and Development of iahorro.com. "We are not so different in the eurozone: what affects some, ends up affecting others and this is proof that, among other things, a two-speed Europe will not be possible," he says.
"Perhaps the positive thing about this situation is that, if Germany sees the problems at its door, the agreement to take action is closer, " Vidal ventures.
However, it seems that Germany does not finish seeing this point and maintains its positions. "Germany will maintain its position until the situation is very serious, because the fracture of the euro would cost very expensive," explains Federico Steinberg. "The problem is that you can make mistakes in your calculations", warns this economist.
Germany at risk?
Do these setbacks mean that the German economy, the first in Europe and one of the world leaders, is in danger? "Macroeconomically, Germany is much better, it is undeniable , but if the EU is threatened, it ends up taking its toll", explains Andrés Dancausa.
"The mainstays of the German economy are solid and have growth prospects", explains Federico Steinberg, "which does not mean that next year can not go into recession."